By Steven Harmon, CONTRA COSTA TIMES

SACRAMENTO — When he first began to ramp up the No on Proposition 16 campaign in the fall, Mark Toney was given helpful advice by Democratic political consultant Gale Kaufman.

Don’t expect Democrats to carry the day in the battle to defeat the ballot measure, backed by Pacific Gas & Electric, which would require a two-thirds vote before local governments could provide alternative energy sources.

‘She said this will be a highly Republican electorate,” said Toney, the executive director of San Francisco-based The Utility Reform Network.

So, Toney has put “extra time and energy” into reaching out to Republicans to support his cause in Tuesday’s primary election — something unthinkable in a typical year. In most years, Democrats could have been counted as a reliable bloc to help vote down corporate-backed ballot measures, another of which is Proposition 17, financed almost wholly by Mercury Insurance Corp. and opposed by consumer groups.

This year, however, Democrats will have a tough time motivating their voters to the polls, thanks to a quiet race at the top of the ticket.

State Attorney General Jerry Brown, running for governor, scared away a handful of potential Democratic opponents in the fall with his near-universal name recognition and superior fundraising network. Elsewhere, no one seriously entertained challenging U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, the three-term incumbent. That meant neither had to fret over what could have been divisive and costly primaries, and both could hoard resources for the general election against wealthier GOP opponents.

“Low turnout will definitely have an impact — it won’t help us beat those (corporate-backed measures) back,” said Roger Salazar, a Democratic political consultant. “But, frankly, our focus is more on November than the primary.”

One question is whether a relatively low-profile primary will make it difficult for Democrats to rally support in the fall, particularly at a time when Republicans are fully motivated by competitive primaries at the top of the ticket.

Meg Whitman, the billionaire ex-CEO of eBay, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner are tied up in the gubernatorial primary. Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell, and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore are in a three-way battle in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

“I can tell you, the enthusiasm for Republicans couldn’t be higher,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican Party officer and editor of the conservative blog FlashReport. “They can’t wait for the first opportunity to vote. They’re trying to sort out who to support for governor and senator, but Republicans are unified behind the idea that Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer make them nauseous. There’s a lot of excitement to get rid of them.”

The more volatile action on the Republican side could result in many decline-to-state voters — who represent a record 20.1 percent of registered voters — participating in the GOP primary, said Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin. But they will likely return to the Democratic fold in the general election, he said, given their history of being more philosophically aligned with Democrats — and the nasty and expensive on-air Republican campaigns.

“I’d rather take a lower turnout and no hostilities in a primary than a higher turnout and divided electorate,” Tulchin said.

In many parts of the East Bay, the competitive primaries among Democrats are few and far between. In contrast, the four-way race in the GOP primary in the 11th Congressional District has built considerable interest among Republicans in the district covering parts of Contra Costa, Alameda, San Joaquin and Santa Clara counties.

“I do see a fair amount of apathy among Democrats,” said Ray Link, a past San Ramon Valley Democratic Party president. “I certainly don’t see the kind of energy that the Republicans have put together this year.”

But Alameda County Democratic Central Committee Chairwoman Robin Torello said it may depend on the area.

“Lucky for Democrats in Alameda County, we have great pockets of places where people are going to go out and vote no matter what, even if it’s just dogcatcher on the ballot,” Torello said. “We do have some contested races — the 20th Assembly District, two supervisorial districts — that cover maybe a little less than half the county, so that will help get people to the polls.”

Overall, a low turnout — possibly one of the lowest in California history — is expected, said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California.

“No contested primary for governor and Senate on the Democratic side, all the money with mostly negative ads on the Republican side — there’s lots of reasons for people to not vote,” Baldassare said. “The stars are aligning for a low turnout.”

Until recently, Democrats around the country warily eyed an enthusiasm gap with Republicans. Tea party enthusiasts held the promise of a passionate conservative movement — aimed at dealing a blow to President Barack Obama — heading into this fall’s midterm elections.

But Obama took some air out of the tea party movement’s sails when he signed the historic health insurance reform bill into law, and a recent spate of primaries in several states brought mixed results that scrambled what had been a tidy narrative that held that Republicans were ascendant.

Tea party activists trumpeted the victory of one of their own in Kentucky — Rand Paul defeated an establishment-backed Republican candidate in a GOP primary for a U.S. Senate seat. But Democrats were equally bolstered by a win in a special election in a conservative Pennsylvania district to replace late U.S. Rep. John Murtha. And U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, challenging from the Democrats’ left wing, captured the Democrats’ nomination over U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, a former Republican who only last year changed parties to avoid a primary challenge from the GOP’s right wing.

“Passing health care galvanized Democrats, and Wall Street reform handed Republicans a defeat,” said Democratic pollster Tulchin. “We were on the right side of a populist issue. I mean, you’ve got Rand Paul defending BP (the oil company responsible for the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico). There’s been a big shift in the landscape that has helped the Democratic base.”

Meanwhile, as many California Democrats are cooling their heels for the fall, opponents to another ballot initiative, Prop. 17, are searching for voters interested in a populist issue in their own backyards.

The measure would allow drivers to switch insurers while retaining their continuous coverage discount but would also mean surcharges for drivers who haven’t been able to make continuous payments.

“If Democrats are not coming out because they’re not as interested in the election, that’s a concern,” said Doug Heller, executive director for Consumer Watchdog, the group opposing Prop. 17. “I think more Democrats would add to our campaign, and the natural inclinations are there to vote against big industry. Republicans are more amenable to a corporate message. But being ripped off by an insurance company makes people angry on a bipartisan basis, so I feel pretty confident.”

Staff writers Josh Richman and Lisa Vorderbrueggen contributed to this story. Contact Steven Harmon at  916-441-2101.

By Steven Harmon, CONTRA COSTA TIMES

SACRAMENTO — Big insurers are targeting a handful of Assembly races in an effort to send business-friendly Democrats to Sacramento as they gird for a renewed push for regulations and consumer protections that might come if Jerry Brown is elected governor.

The insurance industry has poured millions of dollars into four Democratic primary races, including $367,000 into the Bay Area’s 20th Assembly district to support Garrett Yee, an insurance industry professional who is challenging the state Democratic Party’s favorite, Bob Wieckowski.

“It’s pretty obvious the industry is trying to elect one of its own,” said term-limited Alberto Torrico, D-Fremont, who has endorsed Wieckowski to succeed him. The district includes Fremont and surrounding cities in Alameda and Santa Clara counties.

Three insurance political action committees have combined to spend $329,000 in independent expenditures on behalf of Yee.

Yee, a 44-year-old Republican before he switched his registration in 2002 to “Decline to State” and then to Democrat in 2008, has also received $37,800 in direct contributions from insurance PACs.

Yee said he has the backing of the insurance industry because “I understand the principles of insurance. It’s a very complex subject. If elected, I would be understanding of the ramifications or complexities of insurance issues.”

Wieckowski, an attorney who has received $331,000 from labor groups and trial attorneys, more traditional allies of Democrats, said Yee was “speaking industry code for ‘don’t touch us, don’t regulate us.’ ”

Yee downplayed his ties to the insurance industry, saying his role as manager of the quasi-state Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau has been as a data collector and watchdog over information he gathers from insurance corporations.

But on his campaign website, Yee boasts that he worked “directly with employers and insurers,” and as policyholder ombudsman, he “assisted hundreds of employers with problems and disputes involving their workers’ compensation insurance.”

Just as important to his insurance backers, he is on their side on one of the most high-profile issues that is vigilantly guarded by the industry: the $250,000 cap on pain and suffering jury awards, a controversial portion of the Medical Injury Compensation Reform Act (MICRA) of 1975, which could be a central battleground issue in the next legislative session.

Under MICRA, patients can collect unlimited economic damages, unlimited loss of income, unlimited medical expenses and unlimited punitive damages. Pain and suffering is the only area of medical malpractice that is capped in California, which attorneys say hurts many women, the poor and elderly, who end up with the lowest recovery totals because of their limited earning power.

But Yee said the limits on pain and suffering damages have “kept the cost of health insurance under control, to the extent that medical malpractice costs are passed onto patients.”

Lisa Maas, executive director of the Californians Allied for Patient Protection, which has made $184,000 in independent expenditures in support of Yee, said her PAC wanted a candidate “who would be a problem solver when it comes to meeting health care challenges.

“We think it’s very important to make sure we have legislators who are going to be strong on health care, who understand health care issues, who understand the importance of protecting access to health care,” Maas added.

The Californians Allied for Patient Protection’s executive board consists of medical malpractice insurers, the California Hospital Assocation, California Medical Association, California Dental Association and others.

Critics say insurers and large businesses are trying to maintain the anti-regulatory mood that’s thrived under Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and, until 2009, ex-President George Bush.

“I do think the insurers and others in the corporate community have had somewhat of a free ride under Schwarzenegger and Bush and, certainly, they’re afraid of change,” said Lea-Ann Tratten, the political director for Consumer Attorneys of California. “They don’t like regulation and don’t like to be accountable when they hurt people.”

Wieckowski, Yee’s opponent, accused insurance industry PACs of not clearly disclosing to voters their motive behind backing pro-industry candidates in the Democratic races. Campaign fliers sent to thousands of homes by the industry PACs steer clear of the issue of medical malpractice insurance and other regulatory issues which are driving the big push for pro-industry candidates.

“He’s a Boy Scout, he’s close to the Chinese American community here, he’s on the Ohlone Community College board, he’s a colonel in the Army Reserve, he’s apolitical, everything but what he does for a living,” Wieckowski said. “They’re OK with being silent on insurance issues, with having it a nonissue. They know that when I get to the Assembly, I’ll be interested in insurance reform. I believe in consumer protections.”

In addition to the effort by Californians Allied for Patient Protection in the 20th District, another $125,000 in independent expenditures on behalf of Yee came from the Cooperative Of American Physicians, the PAC of the medical malpractice insurer known as Mutual Protection Trust.

The Civil Justice Association of California, whose board of directors is dominated by insurers, has weighed in with $1.75 million in three races, including one in which a former Democratic lawmaker-turned insurance company executive, Juan Vargas, is challenging Assemblywoman Mary Salas, D-San Diego.

In one “hit piece” against Salas, she is accused of taking contributions from health insurers — an attack made all the more rich by the fact that it was funded by the insurer-backed Civil Justice Association of California, said Tratten.

“Insurers are spending millions of dollars to influence the outcome of Tuesday’s election, but most voters don’t know insurance companies are out there propping up initiatives and attacking candidates,” said Doug Heller, executive director of Consumer Watchdog, which is virtually single-handedly taking on Mercury Insurance Corp.’s Proposition 17. Mercury has outraised Consumer Watchdog’s PAC $15.9 million to $1 million.

Contact Steven Harmon at 916-441-2101.